Wyn Thomas - Axys Investment Management

Weekly Market Commentary 11th January 2019

TURBULENT MARKETS TAKE A BREATHER

This week has been broadly positive, with a lull in the news cycle that has allowed the market to catch its breath. Ongoing trade talks between the US
and China are being viewed positively, although there is no guarantee they’ll produce anything concrete. While the US government remains shut down,
it doesn’t appear to be having an impact outside of those unfortunate enough to be stuck in the middle. This might change if the shutdown lasts past
the end of the month when it could cause a delay in people receiving their tax refunds, which incredibly includes around 80 per cent of tax payers. Read more…

Wyn Thomas - Axys Investment Management

Weekly Market Commentary 4th January 2019

MARKET UNCERTAINITY CONTINUES AS US GOVERNMENT REMAINS SHUTDOWN

This week the markets have started the new year as they ended the old one, with some wild price swings. After a December that blew apart the Santa
Rally story by posting the worst returns of the year for the first time, and in doing so ending a reliable easy week before Christmas story topic for
journalists (and analysts) everywhere, we’re now watching for the demise of the January effect. The phenomenon, where small caps outperform large
caps at the start of the year, could be on shaky ground as well despite a positive opening few days. Read more…

Wyn Thomas - Axys Investment Management

Quarterly Market Outlook Winter 2018

REVIEW OF THE PAST QUARTER:

It proved to be a case of too much good news being bad in October. Strong employment growth, little inflation and, mainly, US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell’s “long way” from neutral interest rate comment sparked a treasury yields rally. In turn, bond market contagion spread to the rest of the global markets. Since then, Powell appears to have cooled on further hikes, bringing ‘safe-haven’ assets back to life. However, one of the key indicators of an upcoming recession – the spread between ten-years and two-year US treasury bonds – has been steadily tightening and is now close to the point of inversion. Read more…

Wyn Thomas - Axys Investment Management

Weekly Market Commentary 21st December 2018

GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN SET TO ADD FURTHER FUEL TO GLOBAL SELLOFF

This week we got a timely reminder of what really matters as stocks tumbled on the back of the latest Fed rate hike. While the decision was widely
anticipated, the market had become convinced that recent events would have changed the banks policy on future rate rises, with expectations dropping
absurdly low to just one additional hike in the next two years. This compares to the Federal Reserve forecast of two hikes in 2019 alone, which was
reinforced with a statement from Jerome Powell. In a fitting epitaph to 2018 we then got to witness the chaos that follows when stupidity meets reality. Read more…

Wyn Thomas - Axys Investment Management

Weekly Market Commentary 14th December 2018

IS THIS THE END OF THE ROAD FOR THERESA MAY?

This week pretty much sums up the year; a lot of noise and drama and we’ve ended up back where we started. The challenge to Theresa May dominated
the airwaves for two days, but despite seeing off the challenge, nothing about Brexit has fundamentally changed. While the PM is temporarily safe from
her own party; she still has a deal nobody wants and seems unlikely to get any material change from the EU, who are just as fed up with the whole
process as we are. We still think that May’s strategy is to run the clock down and try and force something through at the end. Other scenarios involving
a referendum or election require too much risk for the Conservative party, so we think they fall in line at the end. Read more…

Wyn Thomas - Axys Investment Management

Weekly Market Commentary 7th December 2018

IS THIS THE END OF THE ROAD FOR THERESA MAY?

This week we return to two old favourites, Brexit and Trump. The Brexit deal is currently being debated in parliament, with a final vote on whether to
take it scheduled for the 11th. It has been a blood bath. On the opening day the government suffered three defeats and has almost surrendered control
entirely. This pantomime of national humiliation shows no signs of ending either. The deal is almost certainly going to be voted down and what happens
next is unknown, but very likely includes some sort of delay or extension while we try to sort ourselves out. There are many predicting Theresa May will
resign, but we’re not so sure. If defeat and failure were all it takes, she’d be gone already. Read more…

Wyn Thomas - Axys Investment Management

Weekly Market Commentary 30th November 2018

THE END OF VOLATILITY?
This week the most notable headline came from Jerome Powell, the Chair of the US Federal Reserve, when he announced that he thought interest rates
were “just below neutral”. This apparent softening of stance has done wonders to soothe a jittery market, with US stocks rallying on the news. Whether
or not this is materially any different from previous statements and actually signals any change in policy is debatable, but it is definitely what the market
needed to hear. This might be the reassurance needed to put an end to the current period of volatility. Read more…

 

Wyn Thomas - Axys Investment Management

Weekly Market Commentary 23rd November 2018

PRIME MINISTER MAY SET TO FINALISE BREXIT PLANS
This week the Brexit saga rolled on. After the high drama of last week when everyone was arguing over when, not if, Theresa May would be replaced;
we find ourselves now with the same Prime Minister, same deal and the same sense of inevitability. While the political media still speculate over
parliamentary vote tallies and back room plots, it turns out May is a far cannier operator than many give her credit for. She appeared to recognise that
the hard line Brexiteers in her own party were all bluster and is now betting that the voting public will accept any deal that means they don’t have to
hear the word Brexit again, which we think should get very short odds. Read More…
Wyn Thomas - Axys Investment Management

Weekly Market Commentary 16th November 2018

BREXIT DEBATE INTENSIFIES
This week the inevitable clash between Brexiteers and reality came to pass as Theresa May finally unveiled the Brexit deal. The basic facts are that
hard Brexit is too economically destructive to be a genuine option, while any compromises to minimise that harm will leave us subject to EU rules
without having a say on them. As was always the case there is no middle ground. Where we go from here is unclear, although we suspect most MPs will
conclude a bad deal is better than no deal after all. Read more…
Wyn Thomas - Axys Investment Management

Weekly Market Commentary 9th November 2018

POLITICAL GRIDLOCK IN THE US AFTER MID-TERM ELECTIONS
The US Midterms this week saw the Democrats wrestle back control of the House of Representatives after eight years, while the Republicans maintained
control of the Senate leaving the country politically gridlocked. The elections weren’t without their fair share of controversy. Voting machines appeared
to break down in predominately black areas of the county of Georgia leaving voters unable to vote for African-American candidate Stacey Abrams with
incumbent governor Kemp winning the county. In Ohio, claims of vote rigging turned out to be caused by a temporary paper jam. Read more…