Wyn Thomas - Axys Investment Management

Weekly Market Commentary 16th November 2018

BREXIT DEBATE INTENSIFIES
This week the inevitable clash between Brexiteers and reality came to pass as Theresa May finally unveiled the Brexit deal. The basic facts are that
hard Brexit is too economically destructive to be a genuine option, while any compromises to minimise that harm will leave us subject to EU rules
without having a say on them. As was always the case there is no middle ground. Where we go from here is unclear, although we suspect most MPs will
conclude a bad deal is better than no deal after all. Read more…
Wyn Thomas - Axys Investment Management

Weekly Market Commentary 9th November 2018

POLITICAL GRIDLOCK IN THE US AFTER MID-TERM ELECTIONS
The US Midterms this week saw the Democrats wrestle back control of the House of Representatives after eight years, while the Republicans maintained
control of the Senate leaving the country politically gridlocked. The elections weren’t without their fair share of controversy. Voting machines appeared
to break down in predominately black areas of the county of Georgia leaving voters unable to vote for African-American candidate Stacey Abrams with
incumbent governor Kemp winning the county. In Ohio, claims of vote rigging turned out to be caused by a temporary paper jam. Read more…
Wyn Thomas - Axys Investment Management

Weekly Market Commentary 2nd November 2018

POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS MARKETS RALLY

This week the market looks to have finally settled down, after prematurely declaring the same thing last week. While there have still been some big
moves this week, they lacked any downward momentum and markets look like they will end up, bar any sudden swings in afternoon trading. While the
volatility may have diminished, the background uncertainty hasn’t. A story that Theresa May had secured access to the single market for services was
quickly rebutted, likewise a tweet from Donald Trump that he was close to a trade deal with China. Read more…

Wyn Thomas - Axys Investment Management

Weekly Market Commentary 26th October 2018

MARKETS BEGIN TO STABILISE

This week markets appeared to stabilise, albeit in an unstable fashion, with a mix of up days and down days. It’s probably too soon to declare the dust
settled, negative reports from Amazon and Google has triggered a further wave of selling, but there might be light at the end of the tunnel. Right now,
most equity markets are down about 8 per cent from a month ago; with Europe down a bit more based on the shenanigans in Italy. As corrections go
this feels about right, although we might see Asian markets fall a bit more before we truly bottom out. Read more…

Wyn Thomas - Axys Investment Management

Weekly Market Commentary 19th October 2018

FEDERAL RESERVE MINUTES HINTS TOWARDS A QUICKER PACE OF RATE HIKES

This week the paranoia over interest rates that has haunted the markets throughout October looks a little more justified, following the release of the
minutes from the September meeting of the US Federal Reserve’s rate setting body, the Open Market Committee. The latest sell was off sparked by
fears that the bank might hike rates faster than expected, and it appears those fears were well founded with several members of the committee pushing
for rates to move into restrictive territory. Read more…

Wyn Thomas - Axys Investment Management

Weekly Market Commentary 12th October 2018

GLOBAL SELLOFF RELENTS AFTER RALLY

Rising US treasury yields, falling US tech stock prices, and incessant tweeting by President Trump were all factors contributing to the global sell-off
this week. President Trump’s tweet questioned the Fed’s tightening policy. It appears the news of the rate hikes took some time to be digested by bond
investors with BlackRock’s debt ETF recording a record outflow of almost $2bn in a single day. The bond market contagion spread to the US Equity
market with technology stocks bearing the brunt of the headwinds. Read more…

Wyn Thomas - Axys Investment Management

Weekly Market Update 5th October 2018

CHINESE MONOPOLY ON COMPUTER AND PHONE MANUFACTURING POSES A RISK TO TECH STOCKS

This week saw major exposés from the shadowy world of espionage. Much of the news has focused on details of the Russian operation to poison former
agent Sergei Skripal with a deadly nerve agent, this spy novel type attack has overshadowed the far more serious cyber security threats that were also
disclosed. The most disturbing is the news that Chinese intelligence agencies infiltrated several factories making computer components and managed
to install chips on motherboards that ended up in secure servers that were installed in US Navy warships, the CIA, the Department of Defence and a
number of other sensitive government agencies as well as in corporations such as Apple and Amazon. Read more…

Wyn Thomas - Axys Investment Management

Quarterly Market Outlook Autumn 2018

REVIEW OF THE PAST QUARTER:

September revealed contrasting monetary policy announcements. The
Bank of Japan avoided tightening its interest rate and bond-buying policies,
maintaining both with a long-term view of meeting the 2 per cent inflation
target. In contrast, the Bank of England hiked rates and the US Federal
Reserve is expected to announce another round of rises. In addition,
Turkey’s Central Bank moved to raise interest rates, increasing them to 24
per cent to deal with ramping inflation rates and currency depreciation. Read more…

Wyn Thomas - Axys Investment Management

Weekly Market Update 28th September 2018

PRESIDENT TRUMP’S SPEECH FALLS FLAT IN THE UN

This week the Brexit waters were muddied further at the Labour party conference, with Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell and shadow Brexit
secretary Sir Keir Starmer putting forward conflicting positions in consecutive speeches. McDonnell appeared to favour a referendum on a bad deal
versus no deal, while the more pragmatic Starmer thought an option to just bin the whole idea ought to be considered as well. While Labour’s position
on Brexit has been incoherent for a while, this would have been a perfect opportunity to come up with a real alternative; given there is a very good chance
the current government implodes, and this becomes Jeremy Corbyn’s decision. Read more…

Wyn Thomas - Axys Investment Management

Weekly Market Update 21st September 2018

CHEQUERS PLAN REBUFFED IN SALZBURG

This week the background noise of uncertainty over Brexit increased to a deafening roar as Theresa May took her Chequers plan to Salzburg only to
have it dismissed out of hand. While much of the press has been fuming about the way the EU27 have treated the Prime Minister, this outcome should
not have been a surprise. The Chequers plan has all along been less of a workable solution to Brexit and more of a hotchpotch of ideas, intended to
satisfy the demands of the Tory backbenches rather than the EU. While the tone from Barnier and Tusk has been more than a little condescending, that
we still don’t seem to have a clue what we’re doing with just six months to go is utterly ridiculous. Read more…