EXPLORING THE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN EUROPE AND THE US This week was nicely summed up by president Trump’s July 4th reimagining of the 1776 revolutionary war to include ye olde airports; incoherent markets with soft expectations fantasies winning out over hard reality. Equities rallied on talk that US and China might restart trade talks, despite data […]
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Entries by Wyn Thomas
TRUMP REVERSES COURSE ON IRAN This week tensions between the US and Iran almost boiled over into full blown conflict; President Trump launched strikes against Iranian radar and missile installations, only to call them back at the last moment. Whilst overt hostility was avoided this time, it seems inevitable that the cold war turns hot […]
ONE COUNTRY, TWO SYSTEMS This week, while Tory party hopefuls all clamour for the chance to sit in the captain’s chair on the Titanic, another democracy is also on the brink of collapse. Protests in Hong Kong over changes to the Island’s governance structure saw thousands hit the streets, despite a violent clampdown from Chinese […]
TRUMP THREATENS MEXICO WITH TARIFFS OVER IMMIGRATION ROW This week markets have been rattled by a further escalation in Donald Trump’s trade war, when he opened a new front with Mexico. Despite renegotiating the NAFTA agreement more to his liking, he has now threatened to impose tariffs unless Mexico does something to stem the flow […]
THERESA MAY CONFIRMS RESIGNATION This week we witnessed another Conservative Prime Minister reduced to rubble over Brexit, whoever ends up replacing her in Number 10 will likely suffer the same fate. Ultimately, she was undone by refusing to acknowledge a simple truth; leaving the EU will be complicated, lengthy and painful. Until that truth is […]
MARKETS REMAIN UNUSUALLY CALM AMIDST ESCALATING TENSIONSThis week, despite the escalating trade war with China and a growing possibility of an actual war with Iran, US markets largely shrugged off rising uncertainty. While we are advocates for ignoring the noise and focusing on the long term, this still seems unusually zen. While it’s possible that […]
NEW TARIFFS MARK LAST GASP BID TO FORCE TRADE DEAL This week the collapsing state of US-China trade relations has roiled markets. Talks appeared to have broken down after US trade negotiator, Robert Lightizer, accused China of reneging on what little the two countries had already agreed on. The opening shots in a new trade […]
FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN CONTINUES TO DEFY MARKET EXPECTATIONS This week, while we await the results from local council elections, there was a chance to indulge in the sport of interest rate speculation; an old favourite from “the before times” when simple things like the strength of the global economy were all we had to worry […]
EUROPEAN ELECTIONS PUTS BREXIT TALKS ON HOLD This week, after a delightful break, we get back to Brexiting. True to form, whatever small signs of progress there might have been have evaporated after cross party talks were reported to have ended without progress; it looks likely now that nothing will happen until after the elections. […]
BREXIT DELAYED UNTIL OCTOBER This week the Brexit saga took another step towards its ultimate outcome, dragging on into infinity. A conditional delay to the end of October 2019 is welcome but unlikely to change anything. Hopefully government will use this time to come up with a workable solution, but don’t be surprised if we […]
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